7
Chance types
Wings, centre and set pieces: real data correct the "textbook" values of 25‑35‑25 and 5/5/5.
Set piecesIFKIndirect free kickDFKDirect free kickPKPenalty kick
25.6%left
36.2%centre
25.6%right
12.6%set pieces (not 15%)
8.4%DFK + PK, fixed share
Distribution: normal and counter-attack chances
Normal (regular time)Counter-attack
What you need to know
- Set pieces: DFK 6.0% · IFK 4.1% · PK 2.4%, not 5/5/5.
- Non-tactical long shots: about 0.6% of normal chances, a kind of "converted" normal chance.
- Extra time: no relevant difference (DFK 5.7%, IFK 4.7%, PK 2.5%).
- Counter-attacks: no PKs. PKs become DFKs, which rise to 8.4%. See ch. 10: the "counter-attack DFK" is actually a DFK/PK mix.
- Right vs left: CHPP data show about 3% more events and 5% more goals on the right. This probably comes from users, who put their best attack on the right, not from the ME.