Tactics
Counter-attacks, long shots, attack in the middle and on wings, pressing: how much they yield and what their limits are.
Counter-attacks: trigger rate by level
Rate = counter-attacks / normal chances missed by the opponent. The maximum is about 45%.
Counter-attacks without the tactic
- Without the tactic: on average 0.14 counter-attacks per match. With the CA tactic: 1.52.
- 2 or more non-tactical counter-attacks: about 1% of matches.
- The number of defenders in the starting lineup matters a lot.
Average counter-attacks per match by number of defenders. With the CA tactic it also grows with HatStats: with 5 defenders and 400+ HatStats it reaches about 2.6.
Long shots (tactic): rate by level
Rate = LS / (normal chances + LS + non-tactical LS). The maximum is about 25–28%.
Non-tactical long shots
They depend on a "hidden" shooting ability, estimated with ISP Att: from 0.1% to 1.4% of normal chances. A missed LS can trigger a counter-attack.
Attack in the middle (AIM) and Attack on wings (AOW)
The tactic level has a weak but visible effect. Chances in the middle go from 59% to 67% with AIM; those on the wings from 73% to 82% with AOW.
Pressing
What it is. With pressing the team tries to break up the opponent's play before it turns into a chance. The result is a match with fewer actions for both teams.
What it depends on. The pressing level is calculated from the players' defending and stamina, and Powerful players give a bonus. Since it depends on stamina, it drops during the match, especially after 75'.
When it pays off.
- If you are much weaker than the opponent and aim for a draw: with fewer chances for everyone, the difference in strength matters less.
- Against a team playing Long shots (LS): pressing always has a minimum chance of stopping them and seems to work a little better than against other tactics, with about 13% more actions stopped. The sample is small, though.
How much it yields.
- The drop in pressing is concentrated from 75': more likely due to stamina than to the ME.
- On average pressing removes about 11% of the events in a match.
- It also reduces injuries, by about 8% (5 to 10% depending on the age band). Injuries happen after pressing and can be cancelled (ch. 12).
- It also reduces special events, and the higher the tactic level, the more it reduces them. Below level 6 there is no measurable effect. From level 6 to 11 special events drop by 3–4 points per level, down to about −21%. At level 12 the drop levels off at about −22%.
- The drop is similar for all the events studied (corners, Quick, Unpredictable and wing events): pressing does not hit one specialty in particular.
| Pressing level | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special events | −3% | −6% | −10% | −14% | −17% | −21% | −22% |
Weighted average of six events (corners, Quick 1 and 2 vs 0, Unpredictable 1 and 2 vs 0, wing events) compared with matches where neither team presses. Data from 11 seasons, excluding matches with Play creatively and matches with extra time. For levels 13 and 14 there is too little data.
How each tactic level is calculated
| Tactic | Level |
|---|---|
| Long shots | 1.66 × average scoring + 0.55 × average set pieces − 7.6 (10 outfielders). Costs −5% midfield and −2.7% attack. |
| Attack in the middle / on wings | sum of the 10 outfielders' passing / 5 − 2 (sum 60 → level 10) |
| Counter-attacks | 0.0173 × Σ[form × (2 × passing + defending) of the defenders] + 1.04. Costs 7% of midfield. |
| Play creatively | passing (weight 4) and experience (weight 1); unpredictable players count double (ch. 13) |
| Pressing | defending and stamina: it drops during the match (chart) |
Each player's main skill counts; the division does not matter. The level shown in the match report is the one at kick-off, but it is recalculated during the match. Quick players (midfield, wingers, attack) give a bonus to counter-attacks, powerful players to pressing, unpredictable players to play creatively. Calculator in the Calculators section.
Pressing loses strength during the match
Pressing level in % of the starting level: on average 97.5% in the first half, 88.6% in the second, 70.5% in extra time. Since 2021 pressing always has a minimum chance of stopping long shots.
Counter-attacks: how many you get, and the "self-regulating" conversion
Probability of getting X counter-attacks by the number of chances missed by the opponent, with tactic level 17–18 (nickarana, Live data).
| Opp. missed chances | 0 CA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 37% | 55% | 8% | ||
| 3 | 19% | 56% | 23% | 1.5% | |
| 4 | 9% | 47% | 38% | 6% | 0.2% |
| 5 | 5% | 35% | 44% | 16% | 1% |
| 6 | 2% | 24% | 43% | 27% | 4% |
- Counter-attack conversion drops after each successful counter-attack and rises after each failed one: it always drifts back to the average (about 34% for levels 15–20).
- The manual's conversion formula (10.8 × level / sum of ratings) is wrong: in the data conversion barely depends on the match ratings.
Long shots: the manual's formulas
- Goal probability: shot = 0.0643 · scoring2.38 · set pieces2.77; defence = 1977 · goalkeeping0.9 + 31.5 · keeper's set pieces2.33; goal = shot / (shot + defence). Set pieces are not affected by form and stamina.
- Share of chances turned into long shots according to the manual: 0.474 × (1 − e−0.0762 · level), i.e. 25% at level 10 and 37% at level 20.
- nickarana's data (ch. 11) give lower values at high levels: about 24% at level 20 and a maximum of 25–28%.