5
How scoring chances are generated
The Match Engine creates a fixed number of normal chance "slots": who gets them depends on the midfield.
5 + 5 + 5exclusive A · exclusive B · open
10maximum per team
72%of matches have 9–11 chances in total
1 + 2 + 1extra time scheme
The 5‑5‑5 scheme
- 5 exclusive to A: A gets them with a probability that grows if its midfield is stronger. If A does not get them, they are lost.
- 5 exclusive to B: same logic. Lost chances do not go to the opponent.
- 5 open: won by whoever dominates midfield. If one team does not get it, the other team does.
- Free kicks and penalties count as normal chances. Corners are special events.
Distribution of total chances per match
Chances per team (71k matches)
Columns = team with more chances (A), rows = team with fewer (B). Values are numbers of matches.
By half and in extra time
- A single half never has more than 10 chances. The most common combination is 5 + 5 (out of about 304k matches).
- Extra time: 4 chances (1 exclusive to A, 2 open, 1 exclusive to B). Over 1281 matches the data match perfectly, with at least 2 chances always present. No known counter-example.
| Extra time A–B | Matches |
|---|---|
| 1 – 2 / 2 – 1 | 222 / 215 |
| 0 – 3 / 3 – 0 | 152 / 139 |
| 2 – 2 | 141 |
| 1 – 1 | 124 |
| 3 – 1 / 0 – 2 / 1 – 3 / 2 – 0 | 86 / 70 / 69 / 63 |