12
Order in the cycle
In every cycle events follow an order. This order explains why one tactic can "steal" events from another.
The event cycle
Special event→
Chance→
Counter-attack→
PNF→
Cards→
Injuries→
Disorganisation
Basic order from the Unwritten Manual, with the refinements from nickarana's studies (in orange).
First the counter-attack, then the PNF
The counter-attack rate does not change whether the opponent has 0 or 1 PNF. Counter-attacks, instead, "steal" PNF events, all the more the more central defenders there are.
| Central def. | PNF% without CA | PNF% with CA | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6.3% | 5.2% | −18% |
| 2 | 3.2% | 2.5% | −21% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 1.2% | −36% |
Conclusion: after a missed chance the ME first checks for an opposing counter-attack, then for the PNF.
Cards and injuries vs pressing
| Yellow (nasty) | Yellow (diving) | Red | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Without pressing | 83.5% | 32.4% | 3.7% |
| With pressing | 83.6% | 29.9% | 3.7% |
| Change | 0.0% | −7.8% | +0.9% |
- Yellow cards for nastiness and red cards: they happen before pressing, so pressing does not cancel them.
- Yellow cards for diving and injuries (about −8%): they happen after pressing and can be cancelled.
About 1 million matches, 50k of them with pressing, no PNF, last 5 seasons.